social change

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Follow us on TWITTER: http://twitter.com/cnforbiddennews Like us on FACEBOOK: http://www.facebook.com/chinaforbiddennews Unprecedented urbanization is happening across China. In the last 30 years, 500 million people have moved into cities. By 2030, China's urban population will account for 1/8 of the world's population. A U.S. political scientist held a study on countries ruled by dictatorships in the past century. The study found that dictatorship regimes with a concentrated urban population often collapse four years faster than average, and with a 60% higher probability to collapse. The main reason is that mega-cities put people close together, so it's easier for people to organize and protest. Let's see what some of the experts have to say about the risks hidden in China's urban development. In the book China's One Billion City Population: Story of the Largest Human Relocation in History, reporter Tom Miller, who lived in Beijing for many years, did an in-depth study of the wrong paths taken in China's rush to urbanization. He believes that a large part of China's economic growth is driven by urban construction. But once the construction slows down in about 20 years, there is a risk of huge slums in cities. The analysis says the real concern is after cities growing in an unhealthy way get many citizens, their quality of life will drop. It would result in a divided society, and failure to fulfill economic commitments. Commentators believe the possibility of social change led by urbanization is very high. Rural population and the urban middle class are both likely to be the fuse of China's large-scale transformation. It's unknown which one will be lit first. Professor of Political Science Xia Ming at City University of New York: "Since beginning this year, more than 50% of China's population lives in cities. That means 700 million people in China live in cities. It is obvious that the rapid process of urbanization will bring instability and conflict. Urbanization itself may bring mass incidents or even revolution." Xia Ming says that along with the increasingly advanced and popular online information, more and more farmers are going through tremendous changes in their concepts and knowledge. The new generation of young people in the countryside no longer work as farmers. They choose to work in cities instead. With more frequent contact with the cities, today's farmers are no longer a group of people known for ignorance, backwardness and introversion. Xia Ming: "With farmers' knowledge of the outside world and the quality of life in the cities', as well as their understating of rights and freedoms, farmers should have a stronger sense of freedom, rule by law, and protection of their rights." Xia Ming pointed out two factors that can cause the outbreak of the rural people: the first is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities' brutal crushing of farmers and brutal law enforcement; and secondly, the awakening of farmers' consciousness. Cao-An, economic and political critic: "The gathering of people will allow more smooth and purposeful dissemination of information. This will give them a deeper understanding of social civilization and their own interests. So they will be more willing to realize their goals through a variety of protests." The second largest group impacted by CCP's vigorous promotion of urbanization is the urban middle class. Xia Ming pointed out that a majority of China's middle class is composed of government civil servants and professionals. They are highly dependent on the state power. In the past 30 years they have been relatively quiet. With the CCP's reckless economic development in past years and high population density, more and more problems begin to threaten urban middle class. Xia Ming: "We see projects around environmental pollution, garbage disposal, and highway or high-speed rail, etc. These projects impact human health. Issues around environmental protection, quality of life, ...