renewable energy

renewable energy

Climate Forecasting for Renewable Energy: CLIM-RUN FP7 project

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Description

Wind and solar power generation is directly affected by weather, which is known to vary considerably over space and time. When planning and operating these renewable systems, there is therefore a large uncertainty in the amount of power that will be generated over future timescales. This is particularly true at climate timescales, defined here as the "behaviour" of weather over relatively long periods of time: wind speed or solar power generation is rarely the same from one month or season within a given year, to the same month or season the following year. Likewise, there can be a considerable variation in power generation from one full year or decade to the next. The uncertainty of power variability over time is known as climate risk. Probabilistic climate forecasts aim to provide robust information of future wind and solar resource variability, including extremes, over climate timescales, to minimise the uncertainty of future renewable power generation. By understanding the expected changes in these resources and the impact on wind and solar power generation, improved, proactive and anticipatory adaptation decisions can be made to manage climate-related risks within renewable power planning and operation strategies.